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| Titel |
Potential forecasting of climate time series |
| VerfasserIn |
Valerie N. Livina, Gerrit Lohmann, Manfred Mudelsee, Timothy M. Lenton |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2013
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 15 (2013) |
| Datensatznummer |
250073606
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on
dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial
coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical probability distribution and
extrapolate them in order to forecast the future probability distribution of data. The method is
tested on artificial data, used for hindcasting observed climate data, and then applied to
forecast Arctic sea-ice time series, showing its vanishing within several decades in the 21st
century. The proposed methodology completes a framework for ‘potential analysis’ of
climatic tipping points which altogether serves anticipating, detecting and forecasting climate
transitions and bifurcations using several independent techniques of time series analysis
[1-5].
References: [1] Livina and Lenton, GRL 2007; [2] Livina et al, Climate of the Past, 2010; [3]
Livina et al, Climate Dynamics, 2011; [4] Livina et al, Physica A, 2011; [5] Livina et al,
submitted, arXiv:1212.4090. |
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