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| Titel |
Will climate change increase transatlantic aviation turbulence? |
| VerfasserIn |
Paul Williams, Manoj Joshi |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2013
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 15 (2013) |
| Datensatznummer |
250073133
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Atmospheric turbulence causes most weather-related aircraft incidents. Commercial aircraft
encounter moderate-or-greater turbulence tens of thousands of times each year
world-wide, injuring probably hundreds of passengers (occasionally fatally), costing
airlines tens of millions of dollars, and causing structural damage to planes. Clear-air
turbulence is especially difficult to avoid, because it cannot be seen by pilots or detected
by satellites or on-board radar. Clear-air turbulence is linked to atmospheric jet
streams, which are projected to be strengthened by anthropogenic climate change.
However, the response of clear-air turbulence to climate change has not previously been
studied.
Here we show using computer simulations that clear-air turbulence changes significantly
within the transatlantic flight corridor when the concentration of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere is doubled. At cruise altitudes within 50-75°N and 10-60°W in winter, most
clear-air turbulence measures show a 10-40% increase in the median strength of turbulence
and a 40-170% increase in the frequency of occurrence of moderate-or-greater turbulence.
Our results suggest that climate change will lead to bumpier transatlantic flights by
the middle of this century. Journey times may lengthen and fuel consumption and
emissions may increase. Aviation is partly responsible for changing the climate,
but our findings show for the first time how climate change could affect aviation. |
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