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Titel |
Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice |
VerfasserIn |
Thierry Fichefet, François Massonnet, Hugues Goosse, Cecilia Bitz, Gwenaëlle Philippon-Berthier, Marika Holland, Pierre-Yves Barriat |
Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2013
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Medientyp |
Artikel
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Sprache |
Englisch
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Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 15 (2013) |
Datensatznummer |
250072785
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Zusammenfassung |
We examine the recent (1979–2010) and future
(2011–2100) characteristics of the summer Arctic sea ice
cover as simulated by 29 Earth system and general circulation
models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project, phase 5 (CMIP5). As was the case with CMIP3,
a large intermodel spread persists in the simulated summer
sea ice losses over the 21st century for a given forcing scenario.
The 1979–2010 sea ice extent, thickness distribution
and volume characteristics of each CMIP5 model are discussed
as potential constraints on the September sea ice extent
(SSIE) projections. Our results suggest first that the future
changes in SSIE with respect to the 1979–2010 model
SSIE are related in a complicated manner to the initial 1979–
2010 sea ice model characteristics, due to the large diversity
of the CMIP5 population: at a given time, some models are
in an ice-free state while others are still on the track of ice
loss. However, in phase plane plots (that do not consider the
time as an independent variable), we show that the transition
towards ice-free conditions is actually occurring in a very
similar manner for all models. We also find that the year at
which SSIE drops below a certain threshold is likely to be
constrained by the present-day sea ice properties. In a second
step, using several adequate 1979–2010 sea ice metrics,
we effectively reduce the uncertainty as to when the Arctic
could become nearly ice-free in summertime, the interval
[2041, 2060] being our best estimate for a high climate forcing
scenario. |
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