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| Titel |
Analysis of extreme climatic features over South America from CLARIS-LPB ensemble of regional climate models for future conditions |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Sánchez, P. Zaninelli, A. Carril, C. Menendez, M. Domínguez |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2012
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 14 (2012) |
| Datensatznummer |
250070871
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| Zusammenfassung |
| An ensemble of seven regional climate models (RCM) included in the European
CLARIS-LPB project (A Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment
and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin) are used to study how some features related to climatic
extremes are projected to be changed by the end of XXIst century. These RCMs are forced by
different IPCC-AR4 global climate models (IPSL, ECHAM5 and HadCM3), covering three
different 30-year periods: present (1960-1990), near future (2010-2040) and distant future
(2070-2100), with 50km of horizontal resolution. These regional climate models have
previously been forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis, in a consistent procedure with
CORDEX (A COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment) initiative for the
South-America domain. The analysis shows a good agreement among them and the available
observational databases to describe the main features of the mean climate of the
continent.
Here we focus our analysis on some topics of interest related to extreme events,
such as the development of diagnostics related to dry-spells length, the structure of
the frequency distribution functions over several subregions defined by more or
less homogeneous climatic conditions (four sub-basins over the La Plata Basin,
the southern part of the Amazon basin, Northeast Brazil, and the South Atlantic
Convergence Zone (SACZ)), the structure of the annual cycle and their main features
and relation with the length of the seasons, or the frequency of anomalous hot or
cold events. One shortcoming that must be considered is the lack of observational
databases with both time and spatial frequency to validate model outputs. At the same
time, one challenging issue of this study is the regional modelling description of a
continent where a huge variety of climates are present, from desert to mountain
conditions, and from tropical to subtropical regimes. Another basic objective of this
preliminary work is also to obtain a measure of the spread among the regional climate
models related to these analysis, and specifically focusing on the GCM employed to
force each RCM. Differences among region and seasons will also be considered. |
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