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| Titel |
Improved seismic risk assessment based on probabilistic multi-source information integration |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Pittore, M. Wieland, A. Duisheev, P. Yasunov |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2012
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 14 (2012) |
| Datensatznummer |
250070641
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Earthquakes threat millions of people all over the world. Assessing seismic risk, defined as
the probability of occurrence of economical and social losses as consequence of an
earthquake, both at regional and at local scale is a challenging, multi-disciplinary task. In
order to provide reliable estimates, diverse information must be gathered by seismologists,
geologists, engineers and civil authorities and carefully integrated, keeping into account the
different uncertainties and the inherent spatio-temporal variability. An efficient and reliable
assessment of the assets exposed to seismic hazard and the structural and social
components of vulnerability are of particular importance, in order to undertake proper
mitigation actions and to promptly and efficiently react to a possibly catastrophic natural
event. An original approach is presented to assess seismic vulnerability and risk
based on integration of information coming from several heterogeneous sources:
remotely-sensed and ground-based panoramic images, manual digitization, already available
information and expert knowledge. A Bayesian approach has been introduced to keep into
account collected information while preserving priors and subjective judgment. In the
broad perspective of GEM (Global Earthquake Model) and more specifically within
EMCA (Earthquake Model Central Asia) project, an integrated, sound approach
to seismic risk in countries with limited resources is an important but rewarding
challenge. Improved vulnerability and risk models for the capital cities of Kyrgyzstan
and Tajikistan, and their application in earthquake scenarios will be discussed. |
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