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| Titel |
Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions? Try it yourself! |
| VerfasserIn |
S. J. van Andel, F. Pappenberger, M. H. Ramos, J. Thielen |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2012
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 14 (2012) |
| Datensatznummer |
250070428
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The last decade has seen much research in producing and increasing the reliability of probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts following the promise that armed with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also start putting attention to ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision makers. Communicating uncertain forecasts includes preparing tools and products for visualization but also understanding how forecasters perceive and use uncertain information in real-time for decision-making. The question of proper communication has by no means been conclusively answered, nor has the question of improved decision making.
In this presentation we will engage in a small but exciting live experiment in which several cases of flood forecasts and a multiple choice of actions will be presented to participants, who will act as decision makers. Answers will be collected and analyzed directly. Results will be presented and discussed together with the participants of the session to see if indeed we make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic forecasts. |
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