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| Titel |
An objective analysis method in applied avalanche modeling |
| VerfasserIn |
J.-T. Fischer, M. Granig |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2012
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 14 (2012) |
| Datensatznummer |
250070069
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The snow avalanche simulation toolbox SamosAT is used as a supporting tool for hazard
mapping questions in Austria and some other European countries. SamosAT comprises two
different model classes. A two-dimensional, depth averaged model for the description of
dense flow avalanches and a three-dimensional, two-phase (air and ice particles) model for
powder snow avalanches. The toolbox allows to compute and display the space and time
evolution of the main avalanche flow variables such as flow height, -velocity or concentration
from initiation to run out.
On the one hand displaying the multidimensional data in natural terrain provides the
basis for an intuitive result interpretation by the user. Clearly this is helpful for case
studies and decision making. On the other hand the complexity and huge amount of
result data makes an objective comparison of a high number of different simulation
results challenging. This however is the basis of sophisticated model analysis and
evaluation, such as sensitivity analysis, calibration, comparison to other models
etc.
Here we present new methods to analyze and objectively compare a high number of
simulation results with respect to their practical relevance. Thus the variation of simulation
results due to sources of variability and uncertainty can be displayed in a clearly arranged and
objective way. The following steps are considered:
Automatization for SamosAT to enable a high number of simulation runs only
outputting the relevant results.
Definition of avalanche quantities with practical relevance. Here the spatial
distribution of the maximum impact pressure serves as a basis to define
geometric (run out and shape) and dynamic (mean impact pressure) quantities.
Development of a technique to map the simulation results computed in a global
coordinate system on a coordinate system aligned with the avalanche flow path.
Thereby we achieve comparability and generalization for arbitrary avalanche
paths.
Finally case studies of the European avalanche test sites are presented employing the
new methods. Release height variations as well as model parameter Monte Carlo
simulations are investigated with respect to their influence on the result distribution.
The methods presented here aim at supplementing expert result interpretation and
providing the basis of an additional enhanced analysis for multidimensional models. |
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