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Titel |
Permafrost simulations in the Dolomites using Alpine3D |
VerfasserIn |
W. Steinkogler, M. Bavay, M. Lehning |
Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2012
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Medientyp |
Artikel
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Sprache |
Englisch
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Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 14 (2012) |
Datensatznummer |
250067559
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Zusammenfassung |
Permafrost is a strong indicator for climate change and an important structural fact for Alpine
infrastructures. Therefore, its spatial distribution and temporal evolution are of great
interest for scientists and practitioners. The effects of permafrost degradation due to
climate change on slope stability, and thus debris flows or rock falls generated in high
alpine regions, seriously affects mountain communities. Simulations as will be
presented in this work can aid to identify, simulate and forecast impacts of climate
change scenarios on permafrost areas. The potential permafrost distribution in the
Veneto region (Italy) was calculated for a spatial resolution of 150 m by applying the
hydro-meteorological model Alpine3D and the one-dimensional model of vegetation, snow,
and soil SNOWPACK.
Information on land use and soil characteristics served as input data and for the
initialization of the model, which was then run for 12 years with the meteorological data
provided from up to 44 automatic weather stations inside or close to the investigation area
as driving variables. Sub-surface temperatures calculated by the model served as
indicators for the likelihood of permafrost. According to the sub-surface conditions the
areas situated within the potential permafrost realm are further subdivided into
different zones. Areas were defined as class ‘permafrost likely’ as long as they are
< -1°C for the whole calculation period. Areas which are < -1°C for at least 50
% of the calculation period are classified as ‘permafrost possible’ based on the
assumption that a short term warming would not be able to totally remove existing
permafrost.
Our calculations for the Veneto region show that only a comparatively small
fraction of the total investigation area is likely to have permafrost under the given
climatic conditions. For the whole Veneto region (21283 km2), a total area of 2.2 km2
is of class ‘permafrost likely’ and additionally 5.3 km2 are of class ‘permafrost
possible’. |
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