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| Titel |
Geological storage of CO2: sensitivity analysis and risk assessment using arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Ashraf, S. Oladyshkin, W. Nowak |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2012
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 14 (2012) |
| Datensatznummer |
250066948
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Geological storage of CO2 is a proposed solution for fighting the climate change. The
considerable costs and potential hazards of the technique requires feasibility studies to assess
all possible risks embedded in the process. Modeling of CO2 storage, requires working with
large time and space scales, which in practice are accompanied by huge geological
uncertainties.
In this work, we practice a study of geological CO2 storage for injection and early
migration time. A typical CO2 injection scenario is implemented on a set of geological
realizations. A number of uncertain parameters are chosen with an assumed knowledge of
probability. A framework based on arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion is used for
projection of flow responses on high-dimensional orthonormal polynomial bases, which
forms a so-called response surface. This approach works with arbitrary probability
knowledge and treats available input data directly without additional assumption on shape of
uncertainty distribution.
Sensitivity analysis is used to rank the model parameters by their influence in the
modeling outcome. For global sensitivity analysis we use Sobol indices which are
robust for a general problem in terms of non-linearity and complexity. The reduced
model represented by the response surface is vastly faster than the full original
model and used for probabilistic risk assessment via Monte-Carlo post-process. |
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