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| Titel |
Evaluation of two Operational Weather Forecasting Systems for the Mediterranean Region |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Papadopoulos, P. Katsafados |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2012
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 14 (2012) |
| Datensatznummer |
250066760
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This paper presents an intercomparison and evaluation of two weather forecasting systems for
the Mediterranean Sea and the surrounding countries. The POSEIDON weather forecasting
system has been developed in the framework of the project “Monitoring, forecasting and
information system for the Greek Seas” at the Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR)
in 1999. In the current HCMR’s operational procedures the system issues high-resolution (~5
km) weather forecasts for 5 days ahead. It is based on an advanced version of the
non-hydrostatic atmospheric Eta/NCEP model and is forced by the GFS model.
To achieve better initialization a meteorological data assimilation package, the
LAPS, has been implemented which employs all available real-time observations.
Likewise, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) limited area model with
the embedded Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) dynamical core became
operational at the Department of Geography at Harokopio University of Athens in
2008. It provides daily 120-hour weather forecasts in a single domain covering
the entire Mediterranean basin and the Black Sea at a resolution of 0.09Ë x0.09Ë
.
The performance of the two operational systems has been assessed across the
Mediterranean region and the surrounding countries using as reference the surface
measurements available from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) network
unevenly distributed over the domain of integration. Surface observations from more than 900
conventional stations were used to verify and compare categorical forecasts of the 10-m wind
field, 2-m air temperature and sea level pressure every 3 hours and the accumulated 6-h
precipitation. The verification of the operational systems is based on the point-to-point
comparison between the model generated variables and the relevant surface observations.
Therefore, a verification procedure has been developed based on the estimation of traditional
objective verification techniques such as bias, RMSE and threat scores for both continuous
and discrete predictants. Preliminary results indicated that the model errors are
highly dependent on the diurnal cycle, the seasonality, the forecast time and the
station location especially over areas with complex physiographic characteristics. |
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