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| Titel |
An epidemic model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Bertuzzo, L. Mari, L. Righetto, R. Casagrandi, M. Gatto, I. Rodriguez-Iturbe, A. Rinaldo |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2012
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 14 (2012) |
| Datensatznummer |
250066462
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| Zusammenfassung |
| As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to
December 2011, climb to 522,000 cases and 7,000 deaths, the development of general models
to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical
supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic
model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the
redistribution of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of the disease, among different human
communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of
pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility
described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided
into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain
model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data
downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information
(LandScan -¢project). The model directly accounts for the role of rainfall patterns in
driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred
during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely
worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The
model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date
grants robustness to the foreseen future development. To this end, we generate
realistic scenario of future precipitation in order to forecast possible epidemic paths
up to the end of the 2013. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a
hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for
progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can
straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention
strategies like mass vaccinations, clean water supply and educational campaigns, thus
emerging as an essential component of the control of future cholera epidemics. |
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