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| Titel |
Uncertainty in Future Solid Ice Discharge from Antarctica |
| VerfasserIn |
R. Winkelmann, A. Levermann, K. Frieler, M. A. Martin |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2012
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 14 (2012) |
| Datensatznummer |
250065760
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Future solid ice discharge from Antarctica under climate scenarios based on the Extended Concentration Pathways is investigated with the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK), a shallow hybrid model with a consistent representation of the ice flow in sheet, shelves and the transition zone.
Both the uncertainty in the climate forcing as well as the intra-model uncertainty are taken into account: All simulations are performed for a 81-member perturbed- physics ensemble and the likely range of surface and ocean warming under the emission pathways derived from the results of 20 CMIP3-AOGCMS.
The effects of surface warming, ocean warming and increased precipitation on solid ice discharge are separately considered. We find that solid ice discharge caused by enhanced basal ice-shelf melting exceeds that caused by surface warming. Increasing precipitation leads to a change from net sea-level rise to sea-level drop.
Our results suggest that the history of the ice-sheet plays an important role with respect to projections of solid ice discharge. |
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