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| Titel |
Regional climate projection based on RCP scenarios in the CORDEX East Asia Domain Using RegCM4 |
| VerfasserIn |
M. S. Suh, S. G. Oh, D. H. Cha, H. S. Kang |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2012
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 14 (2012) |
| Datensatznummer |
250065066
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Regional climate projection data is essential to the adaptation and risk management for the
expected climate change. In this stduy, we reproduced regional climate over CORDEX East
Asia for 72 years from 1979 to 2050 with 50-km resolution using the latest regional climate
model version 4, RegCM4, driven by HadGEM2-AO with about 135-km resolution under
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway
(RCP) 8.5/4.5. Simulation skills of RegCM4 for the present climate (1980-2005, spin up
time: 1979) over CORDEX East Asia are evaluated with CRU-TS (Climate Research Unit
Time-Series) 3.0 and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). And KMA ground
observation data are also used for the detailed assessment of RegCM4 over South
Korea. The evaluation results showed that RegCM4 reasonalbly simulated the spatial
distribution, and inter-annual and seasonal variations of surface air temperature.
However, it showed a non-negligible systemartic biases in the precipitation. In
particular, the rainband accompanied by the seasonal march of East Asian summer
monsoon was simulated too southward, below 30Ë N comparing to the GPCP. As a
reulst, summer precipitation over South Korea and Japan island was significantly
underestimated. Under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5) scenario, annual mean temperature over
the CORDEX East Asia is expected to increase by + 1.6 oC(+1.4oC) above the
present level (1980-2005) by the end of the future simulation period. Most of the
regions (South-Korea, South-China, North-China, India, Japan, Mongolia) show the
increaseing trend of surface air temperature. On the other hand, the future changes of
precipitation are not systemaic at the most of regions and seasons. More detailed results
including projected regional climate change will be discussed in the presentation. |
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