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| Titel |
Study on the Change Trend of Flood Risk for Flash Flood-prone Areas in China under Climate Change Scenarios |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Hu, Z. Liu |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2012
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 14 (2012) |
| Datensatznummer |
250064617
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| Zusammenfassung |
| China is a country frequently hit by torrential rainstorms and flash flood disasters. Flash flood
disaster in mountainous areas in China has the characteristics of wide-range distribution,
disastrous consequences and hard to predict and prevent. In recent years, flash flood disaster
in China is particularly serious in the context of global climate change, and it has become the
subject of flood damage. This paper presents the method for dividing flash flood prone
areas in China based on the index of critical rainfall coefficient that is the ratio
between the 6-hour mean rainfall and 6-hour critical rainfall. As a result, the flash
flood prone areas in China are divided into three levels, namely high, medium and
low level. In this study, based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
(SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, the UK Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and
Research regional climate model system PRECIS was used to project the daily rainfall
time series data of 0.5°
Ã0.5°
for the years of 2020 to 2050 in China. By analyzing
the positive correlation between the daily rainfall and 6-hour rainfall, the change
trend of the critical rainfall coefficient was identified, and then it was analyzed of
flood risks of the flash flood-prone areas in China under the future scenarios of
climate change. The paper concludes that the risk of flash flood-prone area of China
will increase. And the results of this research could provide the scientific basis
for the Government to take adaptation measures for addressing climate change. |
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