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| Titel |
Relative impacts of climate and land use changes on future flood damage along River Meuse in Wallonia |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Beckers, S. Detrembleur, B. J. Dewals, L. Gouverneur, S. Dujardin, P. Archambeau, S. Erpicum, M. Pirotton |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2012
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 14 (2012) |
| Datensatznummer |
250063430
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard across most of Europe, both in terms of
peak discharge intensity and frequency. Consequently, managing flood risk will remain an
issue of primary importance for decades to come. Flood risk depends on territories’
flood hazard and vulnerability. Beside climate change, land use evolution is thus a
key influencing factor on flood risk. The aim of this research is to quantify the
relative influence of climate and land use changes on flood damage evolution during
the 21st century. The study focuses on River Meuse in Wallonia for a 100-year
flood.
A scenario-based approach was used to model land use evolution. Nine urbanization
scenarios for 2100 were developed: three of them assume a “current tend” land use evolution,
characterized by urban sprawl, while six others assume a sustainable spatial planning, leading
to an increase in density of residential areas as well as an increase in urban functions
diversity.
A study commissioned by the EU has estimated a 30 % increase in the 100-year discharge
for River Meuse by the year 2100. Inundation modeling was conducted for the present day
100-year flood (HQ100) and for a discharge HQ100Â +Â 30%, using the model Wolf 2D and a
5m grid resolution Digital Elevation Model (Ernst et al. 2009). Based on five different
damage curves related to land use categories, the relative damage was deduced from the
computed inundation maps. Finally, specific prices were associated to each land
use category and allowed assessing absolute damages, which were subsequently
aggregated to obtain a damage value for each of the 19 municipalities crossed by River
Meuse.
Results show that flood damage is estimated to increase by 540 to 630 % between 2009
and 2100, reaching 2.1 to 2.4 billion Euros in 2100. These increases mainly involve
municipalities downstream of a point where the floodplain width becomes significantly larger.
The city of Liège, which is protected against a 100-year flood in the present situation, would
undergo about 450 million Euros damage for a 100-year flood in the 2100, i.e.
in-between 21% and 25 % of the whole damage increase. The influence of climate
is three to eight times higher than the effect of land use change according to the
land use evolution scenarios considered. Nevertheless, these two factors have a
comparable influence on seven municipalities. Consequently, although a careful
spatial planning would not considerably reduce the overall flood damage at the
level of the Walloon part of the Meuse Valley, more sustainable spatial planning
could efficiently reduce future flood damage at the level of several most critical
municipalities.
Reference
Ernst, J, Dewals, B, Detrembleur, S, Archambeau, P, Erpicum, S, & Pirotton, M. (2010).
Micro-scale flood risk analysis based on detailed 2D hydraulic modelling and high resolution
geographic data. Natural Hazards, 55(2), 181-209. |
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