 |
| Titel |
On the estimation of minimum anthropogenic trends in regional averaged temperature records over China |
| VerfasserIn |
N. Yuan, A. Bunde |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2012
|
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 14 (2012) |
| Datensatznummer |
250062912
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| In order to evaluate and compare possible anthropogenic trends in China, we study in the 8
climate regions of China the averaged minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures over
the past 50 years. For obtaining the temperature data, we averaged over a large
number of local temperature data in each climate zone. The climate regions are the
Northeast, North, East, Southcentral, Southern, Southwest, and Northwest as well as
the province of Xinjiang. In order to estimate the minimum anthropogenic trend
(MAT) in each climate zone within the 95 percent confidence interval we use the
methodology of Lennartz and Bunde [1]. We find that the averaged temperature
data show a considerably more pronounced anthropogenic signal than the local
temperatures. For the averaged minimum temperatures, the MAT varies from 0.320C in
Southwest up to 1.510C in Xinjiang, for the averaged mean temperatures, the MAT
varies from -0.060C in Southwest up to 1.050C in North, and for the averaged
maximum temperature the MAT varies from -1.140C in Southcentral up to 0.680C in
Northwest. While all averaged minimum temperatures show a significant external
trend, the averaged mean temperature of Southwest and the maximum temperatures
from the southern regions of China (Southwest, Southern, and Southcentral) do not
show a significant anthropogenic signal, since their MAT is negative. If we average
over all climatic zones in China, the MAT is positive not only for the minimum
temperature (1.000C), but also for the mean (0.710C) and the maximum temperature
(0.350C).
[1] Lennartz. S., and A. Bunde (2011), Distribution of natural trends in long-term
correlated records: A scaling approach, Phys. Rev. E, 84, 021129. |
|
|
|
|
|
|