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| Titel |
A conceptual model of the atmosphere driven by different processes: Extreme events and snapshot attractors |
| VerfasserIn |
T. Bódai, Gy. Károlyi, T. Tél |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2012
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 14 (2012) |
| Datensatznummer |
250062785
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In a low-order chaotic model of global atmospheric circulation the
effects of driving (noisy, chaotic, and periodic) are investigated.
We use two frameworks of investigation: a single trajectory and a
trajectory ensemble framework. The main focus is on the cyclonic
activity in the model, concerning its time-evolution and also the
kurtosis of its distribution. Within the trajectory ensemble
framework, natural measures of snapshot attractors and kurtosis of
snapshot distributions with respect to cyclonic extreme event
probability are determined as functions of time. In both frameworks
we find that when the characteristic time of the driving is
comparable to that of the undriven system, an effect of amplified
variance shows up with all drivings. The amplification is the
stronger, the driving is the more regular. For very fast drivings we
find just a slight departure from the undriven system, which is also
the case with white noise driving. Extreme value statistics is
pursued by the method of block maxima, and found to follow Weibull
distributions, which is confirmed by return time plots. |
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