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| Titel |
Extreme Value Statistics of Downscaled Climate Projections for Turkey and Its Region |
| VerfasserIn |
Y. Yilmaz, H. N. Dalfes |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2012
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 14 (2012) |
| Datensatznummer |
250062541
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Information about climate extremes of the future should constituted essential ingredient for
any realistic impact study. This study attempts to extract such information from dynamically
downscaled climate projections for Turkey and its region. Results from several AR4 global
climate models (ECHAM5, CCSM and HadCM3) has been used to force at the boundaries a
regional climate model (RegCM3) to obtain dynamically downscaled climate fields at a
resolution of 27 km for the historical (1961-1990) reference period and the 21st
Century (2000-2099). Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution parameters
(location, shape and scale) are estimated using a maximum likelihood approach
under the assumption of non-stationarity for each model grid cell and for a number
of climate variables (daily mean temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily
minimum temperature, daily total precipitation, monthly mean surface runoff and
snow depth). Uncertainties for GEV parameters are estimated through resampling
methods. Parameters are estimated for 10-year periods both for reference and projected
climates. It has been observed that GEV parameters for most climate variables show
significant geographic variations, mostly due to the accentuated topography of Turkey. |
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