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| Titel |
Contemplating coincidences - Statistical relationships between geoscientific event series |
| VerfasserIn |
J. F. Donges, R. V. Donner, J. Heitzig, J. Kurths |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2012
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 14 (2012) |
| Datensatznummer |
250062502
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In the geosciences, researchers are often interested in studying event series or temporal point
processes like the timings ti of extreme weather events, climate transitions, volcanic
eruptions, earthquakes or the appearance and disappearance of species from the fossil record.
In contrast to classical time series, the considered events either do not have a well-defined
associated magnitude xi, e.g., as for qualitative transitions in climate dynamics, or a
measurable magnitude is discarded for simplifying the analysis. When series of distinct
types of events are available in a common time frame, assessing their statistical
interrelationships can be valuable for testing theories proposing specific causal
relationships as well as for explorative data analysis. We introduce a technique called
coincidence analysis for computing the probability p that the observed number of
coincident events between two event series is due to chance given a fixed temporal
tolerance window. Hence, a small p points to a significant statistical relationship.
Furthermore, we illustrate coincidence analysis in several examples and point out formal
links to other techniques like Ripley’s cross-K function from spatial statistics, or
event synchronization and cross-recurrence rate from nonlinear time series analysis. |
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