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| Titel |
Hydroclimatic drivers, Water-borne Diseases, and Population Vulnerability in Bengal Delta |
| VerfasserIn |
A. S. Akanda, A. S. Jutla |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2012
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 14 (2012) |
| Datensatznummer |
250061934
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Water-borne diarrheal disease outbreaks in the Bengal Delta region, such as cholera,
rotavirus, and dysentery, show distinct seasonal peaks and spatial signatures in their origin
and progression. However, the mechanisms behind these seasonal phenomena, especially the
role of regional climatic and hydrologic processes behind the disease outbreaks, are not fully
understood. Overall diarrheal disease prevalence and the population vulnerability to
transmission mechanisms thus remain severely underestimated. Recent findings
suggest that diarrheal incidence in the spring is strongly associated with scarcity of
freshwater flow volumes, while the abundance of water in monsoon show strong positive
correlation with autumn diarrheal burden. The role of large-scale ocean-atmospheric
processes that tend to modulate meteorological, hydrological, and environmental
conditions over large regions and the effects on the ecological states conducive to the
vectors and triggers of diarrheal outbreaks over large geographic regions are not well
understood.
We take a large scale approach to conduct detailed diagnostic analyses of a range of climate,
hydrological, and ecosystem variables to investigate their links to outbreaks, occurrence, and
transmission of the most prevalent water-borne diarrheal diseases. We employ satellite remote
sensing data products to track coastal ecosystems and plankton processes related to cholera
outbreaks. In addition, we investigate the effect of large scale hydroclimatic extremes
(e.g., droughts and floods, El Nino) to identify how diarrheal transmission and
epidemic outbreaks are most likely to respond to shifts in climatic, hydrologic, and
ecological changes over coming decades. We argue that controlling diarrheal disease
burden will require an integrated predictive surveillance approach – a combination
of prediction and prevention – with recent advances in climate-based predictive
capabilities and demonstrated successes in primary and tertiary prevention in endemic
regions. |
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