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| Titel |
Bayesian analysis of the modified Omori law |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Holschneider, C. Narteau, P. Shebalin, Z. Peng, D. Schorlemmer |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2012
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 14 (2012) |
| Datensatznummer |
250061504
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In order to examine variations in aftershock decay rate, we propose a Bayesian framework to
estimate the {K,c,p}-values of the modified Omori law (MOL), λ(t) = K(c + t)-p.
The Bayesian setting allows not only to produce a point estimator of these three
parameters but also to assess their uncertainties and posterior dependencies with
respect to the observed aftershock sequences. Using a new parametrization of the
MOL, we identify the trade-off between the c and p-value estimates and discuss its
dependence on the number of aftershocks. Then, we analyze the influence of the
catalog completeness interval [tstart,tstop] on the various estimates. To test this
Bayesian approach on natural aftershock sequences, we use two independent and
non-overlapping aftershock catalogs of the same earthquakes in Japan. Taking into
account the posterior uncertainties, we show that both the handpicked (short times)
and the instrumental (long times) catalogs predict the same ranges of parameter
values. We therefore conclude that the same MOL may be valid over short and long
times. |
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