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| Titel |
Higher hydroclimatic intensity with global warming |
| VerfasserIn |
F. Giorgi, E. Coppola, E. I. Soon, N. Diffenbaugh, X. J. Gao, L. Mariotti, Y. Shi |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2012
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 14 (2012) |
| Datensatznummer |
250060787
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Because of their dependence on water, natural and human systems are highly sensitive to change in the hydrologic cycle. We introduce a new measure of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT), which integrates metrics of precipitation intensity and dry spell length, viewing the response of these two metrics to global warming as deeply interconnected. Using a suite of global and regional climate model experiments, it is found that increasing HY-INT is a consistent and ubiquitous signature of twenty-first century, greenhouse gas-induce global warming. Depending on the region, the increase in HY-INT is due to an increase in precipitation intensity, dry spell length, or both. Late twentieth century observations also exhibit dominant positive HY-INT trends, providing a hydroclimatic signature of late twentieth century global warming. Precipitation intensity increases because of increased atmospheric water-holding capacity in warmer conditions. However, increases in mean precipitation are tied to increases in surface evaporation rates, which are lower than for atmospheric moisture. This leads to a reduction in the number of wet days and thus an increase in mean dry spell length. This analysis identifies increased hydroclimatic intensity as a robust integrated response to global warming, implying increasing risk of dry and wet extremes and providing a potential target for detection and attribution of hydroclimatic changes. |
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