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| Titel |
Algorithm of Calculation of Individual and Social Risk from Hazardous Natural Processes based on The Danger's Degree Map and Databases |
| VerfasserIn |
Vera Pyrchenko, Valentina Burova |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2011
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 13 (2011) |
| Datensatznummer |
250058083
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This study represents procedure of risk’s calculation. It is based on too sources: 1) the
danger’s degree map of natural processes and 2) the database about their consequences (look
the other our abstract).
First, we define the number of inhabitants subject to influence of hazardous process of
determined category of danger (NH), all over the country. This is a sum of inhabitants of all
taxons (i = mh) the danger’s degree map, with a process h the k category(hk). We are taking
into account a degree of affect (Ahi) of taxon’s territory by the process (data from the
map).
The database stores statistics about manifestations of natural hazards in territory of the
country for last 20 years: quantity of died – nhd, injured – nht, and had material loss – nhw
in all events of process hk. Thus we can obtain the average of casualties from natural hazards
in a year – nhl(t,w)
Further we define probability for a person to suffer from effect of process hk we
dividing the average of casualties for a year into total number of inhabitants in
subject territory (NH). We accept that the individual risk to suffer from natural
hazard
Rih = Phi à Fh,
(1)
where Fh– long-term repeatability of process hk, p.un./year (data from map).
By definition, the individual risk – the characteristic related to concrete or typical
individual.
The potential individual risk from all five hazardous processes in the taxon is equal to the
sum of potential individual risks from each process (according to categories of their
danger):
The collective or social risk (by A.L. Ragozin’s definition) – expected quantity of
casualties on a certain site of territory as a result of hazardous natural processes for the
certain period of time. The social risk is the characteristic of concrete territorial
unit.
The social risk (Rs) is calculated as product of individual risk and population of the
taxon,
Rs = Ri à Ni,
(2)
expressed in people/year on area unit.
It is more convenient to use specific value of social risk for creation of a map of social
risk which is calculated as
rs = Rs-S ,
i
(3)
where Si – territory of the i taxon (sq. km). |
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