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| Titel |
Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on an Ensemble of Simulations using a Business-As-Usual Scenario |
| VerfasserIn |
Jeffery Scott, Andrei Sokolov, Chris Forest, Stephanie Dutkiewicz, Peter Stone |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2011
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 13 (2011) |
| Datensatznummer |
250057910
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The behavior of the climate system is examined in an ensemble of runs
using an Earth System Model of intermediate complexity. Climate
“parameters” varied are the climate sensitivity, the aerosol forcing,
and the strength of ocean heat uptake. Variations in the latter were
accomplished by changing the strength of the oceans’ background vertical
mixing. While climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing can be varied over
rather wide ranges, it is more difficult to create such variation in
heat uptake while maintaining a realistic ocean circulation. Therefore,
separate ensembles were carried out for few values of the vertical
diffusion coefficient. Joint probability distributions for climate
sensitivity and aerosol forcing are constructed by comparing results
from 20^th century simulations with available observational data. These
distributions are then used to generate ensembles of 21^st century
simulations; results allow us to construct probabilistic distributions
for changes in important climate variables such as surface air
temperature, sea level rise, and magnitude of the AMOC. |
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