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| Titel |
Analysis of the Ability of Large-scale Reanalysis Data to Define Siberian Fire Danger in Preparation for Future Fire Weather |
| VerfasserIn |
Amber Soja, David Westberg, Paul Jr. Stackhouse, Douglas McRae, Ji-Zhong Jin, Anatoly Sukhinin, Nadezda Tchebakova |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2011
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 13 (2011) |
| Datensatznummer |
250057374
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Fire is the dominant disturbance that precipitates ecosystem change in boreal regions, and fire is largely
under the control of weather and climate. Fire regimes (frequency, severity, area burned, season length)
are predicted to increase in boreal regions under current climate change scenarios. Therefore, changes in
fire regimes have the potential to compel ecological change, moving ecosystems more quickly towards
equilibrium with a new climate.
The ultimate goal of this presentation is to demonstrate the viability of large-scale (1°) data to be used to define fire weather danger and fire regimes, so that large-scale data can be confidently used to predict
future fire regimes using large-scale fire weather data, like that available from current Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios. In this talk, we intent to: (1) evaluate Fire
Weather Indices (FWI) derived using reanalysis and interpolated station data; (2) discuss the advantages
and disadvantages of using these distinct data sources; and (3) highlight established relationships between
large-scale fire weather data, area burned, active fires and ecosystems burned.
Specifically, the Canadian Forestry Service (CFS) FWI is derived using: (1) NASA GEOS-4 large-scale
reanalysis and GPCP data; and NCDC surface station-interpolated data. Requirements of the FWI are
local noon surface-level air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and daily (noon-noon) rainfall.
GEOS-4 reanalysis and NCDC station-interpolated fire weather indices are generally consistent spatially,
temporally and quantitatively. Additionally, increased fire activity coincides with increased FWI ratings
in both data products. Relationships have been established between large-scale FWI to area burned, fire
frequency, ecosystem types, and these can be use to estimate historic and future fire regimes. |
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