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| Titel |
Quantifying the sensitivity of North Atlantic cyclone development to atmospheric precursor fields |
| VerfasserIn |
Helen Dacre, Suzanne Gray, Lorena Garcies |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2011
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 13 (2011) |
| Datensatznummer |
250055552
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| Zusammenfassung |
| North Atlantic cyclones can develop due to a wide variety of mechanisms. This makes it difficult to determine typical evolution characteristics and hence to quantify the relative importance of factors contributing to their development. In this study cyclones identified in the ERA-Interim, 6-hourly, reanalysis fields have been clustered according to their genesis location (west or east Atlantic) and their time to maximum intensity. These relatively homogeneous clusters allow relevant mean precursor fields (such as upper-level potential vorticity) to be created, whilst differences among cyclones in each cluster provide diversity. Using a sensitivity analysis technique, the linear relationship between maximum cyclone intensity and various atmospheric precursors for each cyclone cluster have been calculated. Confidence in the linear relationship is calculated and the spatial variability of the precursor fields taken into account. This standardisation of the sensitivity results allows quantitative comparison among different precursor fields to be performed. Results from this quantitative representative sensitivity analysis for each cyclone cluster will be presented. |
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