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| Titel |
Future projections in extreme wind statistics over Europe |
| VerfasserIn |
Grigory Nikulin, Erik Kjellström, Colin Jones |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2011
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 13 (2011) |
| Datensatznummer |
250054772
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Many regional model studies show a tendency to an increase in mean and extreme wind speeds in the end of the century over Europe but there are large discrepancies in magnitude and spatial patterns of the projected changes among different models. Several ensembles of RCM simulations are utilized in order to quantify how various aspects of regional climate modelling can influence the future projections in extreme wind statistics in Europe. The ensembles used in the study allow to examine uncertainties in the regional climate projections related to: i) different driving AOGCMs, ii) different RCMs, iii) different initial conditions, iv) different climate sensitivities and v) different emission scenarios. It is shown that different driving AOGCMs, RCMs and initial conditions are the main factors contributing to spread among the future projections in extreme wind while two other factors, climate sensitivity and emission scenario, have a minor contribution. |
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