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| Titel |
Reactive transport on multiscale networks: controls and drivers of large-scale cholera outbreaks |
| VerfasserIn |
Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Mari, Lorenzo Righetto, Marino Gatto, Renato Casagrandi, Ignacio Rodríguez-Iturbe |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2011
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 13 (2011) |
| Datensatznummer |
250052365
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In the spirit of the session, the Lecture reviews recent modeling concepts and techniques on
the role of human mobility as a driver for long-range spreading of cholera infections, which
primarily propagate through mechanisms operating at different spatial and temporal scales
through hydrologically controlled ecological corridors. A multiscale, multiphysics
parametrization combining different processes (here pathogen dispersion along hydrologic
pathways and through human mobility coupled with local outbreak dynamics) is combined
into a mechanistic spatially explicit model of disease epidemic. We present a two-layer
network model that accounts for the interplay between epidemiological dynamics,
hydrological transport and long-distance dissemination of the pathogen Vibrio cholerae due
to host movement, here described by means of a gravity-model approach. We test our
model against epidemiological data recorded during the extensive cholera outbreak
occurred in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa during 2000–2001 and
for the ongoing Haiti epidemics. We show that long-range human movement is
instrumental in quantifying otherwise unexplained inter-catchment transport of
V. cholerae, thus playing a key role in the formation of regional patterns of cholera
epidemics. We also show quantitatively how heterogeneously distributed drinking
water supplies and sanitation conditions may affect large-scale cholera transmission. |
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