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| Titel |
Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios: consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast |
| VerfasserIn |
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Katja Frieler, Malte Meinshausen, Jianjun Yin, Anders Levermann |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2011
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 13 (2011) |
| Datensatznummer |
250052308
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In order to provide probabilistic projections of the future evolution of the Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation (AMOC), we calibrated a simple Stommel-type box model to
emulate the output of fully coupled three-dimensional atmosphere-ocean general circulation
models (AOGCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Based on
this calibration to idealised global warming scenarios with and without interactive
atmosphere-ocean fluxes and freshwater perturbation simulations, we project the future
evolution of the AMOC within the covered calibration range for the lower two Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs) until 2100 obtained from MAGICC6. For RCP3-PD with a
global mean temperature median below 1.0°C, we project an ensemble median weakening of
up to 11% compared to 22% under RCP4.5 with a warming median up to 1.9°C over the 21st
century. Additional Greenland melt water of 10 and 20 cm of global sea-level rise
equivalent further weakens the AMOC by about 4.5 and 10%, respectively. By
combining our outcome with a multi-model sea-level rise study we project a dynamic
sea-level rise along the New York City coastline of 4 cm for the RCP3-PD and of 8 cm
for the RCP4.5 scenario over the 21st century. We estimate the total steric and
dynamic sea-level rise for New York City to be about 24 cm till 2100 for the RCP3-PD
scenario, which can hold as a lower bound for sea-level rise projections in this region. |
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