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| Titel |
Modeling of the 20th and 21st century evolution of Hoffellsjökull, a southeast outlet glacier of Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland |
| VerfasserIn |
Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, Sverrir Guðmundsson, Helgi Bjornsson, Finnur Palsson, Tomas Johannesson, Hrafnhildur Hannesdóttir, Sven Þ. Sigurdsson, Etienne Berthier |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2011
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 13 (2011) |
| Datensatznummer |
250051718
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The maximum extent of glaciers in Iceland was reached about 1890 AD and during the 20th
century most of the glaciers have been retreating. A model for the mass balance and flow of
glaciers is used to reconstruct the 20th century retreat history of the outlet glacier
Hoffellsjökull which is located close to the southeast coast of Iceland. The topography of the
bedrock was surveyed by radio-echo sounding in 2001. A wealth of other data have been
collected to force and constrain the model; e.g. surface maps from ~1890, 1904, 1936, 1946,
1986, 2001 and 2008, mass balance observations conducted in 1935–1938 and after 2000,
energy balance measurements after 2000, and velocity observed with DGPS and
obtained through correlation of SPOT5-HRG images. The 20% volume loss of this
glacier in the period 1890–2008 is well simulated with the coupled model. Having
calibrated the model with past observations, it is used to simulate the future response of
the glacier during the 21st century. The mass balance model was forced with an
ensemble of temperature and precipitation scenarios from a collaborative project to
study the effect of climate changes in the Nordic countries (the CES project). If
the average climate of 2000–2010 is maintained, the volume is projected to be
reduced by 30% with respect to the present at the end of this century, and the glacier
will almost disappear if the climate warms as suggested by most of the climate
change scenarios. Runoff from the glacier is predicted to increase for the next 30–40
years and decrease after that as a consequence of the reduction in the ice-covered
area. |
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