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| Titel |
Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program: Climate prediction capacities strengthened in the National Meteorological Services |
| VerfasserIn |
Yuriy Kuleshov, Andrew Charles, Andrew Cottrill, David Jones, Harry Hendon, Eun-Pa Lim, Roald de Wit |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2011
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 13 (2011) |
| Datensatznummer |
250050339
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP) is one of the four main components of the Australian International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative. The PASAP’s aim is to strengthen the capacity of Pacific Island Countries (PICs) and Timor Leste to assess their vulnerabilities to climate change through the provision of information, tools and training, and to incorporate climate change adaptation into planning and development strategies. Led by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology the project “Climate prediction capacities strengthened in National Meteorological Services” is one of six PASAP’s projects.
The project will develop the means for a transition from a statistical to a dynamical prediction system for seasonal climate variability. Seasonal Outlooks will be based upon the current dynamical model POAMA (Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia) seasonal forecast system. At present, the National Meteorological Services of the PICs largely use statistical models for seasonal outlooks. Statistical models cannot account for aspects of climate variability and change that are not represented in the historical record. Dynamical physics-based models implicitly include the effects of a changing climate and can predict outcomes not seen previously. The transition from a statistical to a dynamical prediction system will ultimately provide more valuable and applicable climate information to a wider range of climate sensitive sectors.
A strength of the PASAP project it that it aims to apply leading edge science to improve climate services to support adaptation in developing PICs. The project is partnering with existing aid funded projects, most importantly the Pacific Islands Climate Prediction Project and the Pacific Climate Change Science Program to deliver practical improvements in climate information services delivered by the National Meteorological Services of the PICs.
Acknowledgement
The research discussed in this paper was conducted with the support of the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program, which is supported by the Australian Agency for International Development, in collaboration with the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, and delivered by the Bureau of Meteorology. |
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