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| Titel |
Hydrological transport, human mobility and cholera epidemics: a spatially explicit modeling approach |
| VerfasserIn |
Lorenzo Mari, Enrico Bertuzzo, Lorenzo Righetto, Renato Casagrandi, Marino Gatto, Ignacio Rodríguez-Iturbe, Andrea Rinaldo |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2011
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 13 (2011) |
| Datensatznummer |
250049493
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Cholera is an acute enteric disease caused by the ingestion of water or food contaminated by
the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. We investigate the role of human mobility as a driver for
long-range spreading of cholera infections, which primarily propagate through hydrologically
controlled ecological corridors. Since most infected individuals do not develop acute
symptoms, they can be responsible, while traveling or commuting, for the dissemination of
the disease. We present a two-layer network model that accounts for the interplay between
epidemiological dynamics, hydrological transport and long-distance dispersal of the pathogen
V. cholerae due to host movement, described by means of a gravity-model approach. We test
our model against epidemiological data recorded during the extensive cholera outbreak
occurred in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa during 2000–2001. We show that
long-range human movement is instrumental in quantifying otherwise unexplained
inter-catchment transport of V. cholerae, thus playing a key role in the formation of regional
patterns of cholera epidemics. We also show quantitatively how heterogeneously distributed
drinking water supplies and sanitation conditions may affect large-scale cholera
transmission. |
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