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| Titel |
Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking |
| VerfasserIn |
Peter Ditlevsen, Sigfus Johnsen |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2011
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 13 (2011) |
| Datensatznummer |
250049461
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The causes for and possible predictions of rapid climate
changes are poorly understood. The most pronounced
changes observed, beside the glacial terminations, are the
Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Present day general circulation
climate models simulating glacial conditions are not capable
of reproducing these rapid shifts. It is thus not known if they
are due to bifurcations in the structural stability of the climate
or if they are induced by stochastic fluctuations. By
analyzing a high resolution ice core record we exclude the
bifurcation scenario, which strongly suggests that they are
noise induced and thus have very limited predictability. |
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