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| Titel |
Modeling forest fires dynamics in Europe using the Community Land Model |
| VerfasserIn |
Mirco Migliavacca, Alessandro Dosio, Alessandro Cescatti, Andrea Camia, Jesus San Miguel-Ayanz, Tracy Durrant Houston |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2011
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 13 (2011) |
| Datensatznummer |
250048601
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Forest fires are one of the main disturbances affecting carbon sequestration of European
forests. Although it is generally recognized that the occurrence of forest fires in Europe is due
mainly to causes of an anthropogenic nature, year to year total burned area and CO2 emitted
from forest fires is also linked to meteorological conditions. Moreover, the projected decrease
in summer precipitation in southern Europe and the increase in the frequency of summer
droughts will probably induce greater risks of forest fires, ultimately resulting in strong
impacts on natural resources and ecosystem stability, with consequent direct and indirect
economic losses.
This study is focused on the assessment of the spatial and temporal variability of
the total area burned, regional release of CO2 as consequence of forest fires and
changes in spatial pattern of fire risk level in Europe using a process-based modeling
approach.
To this purpose the Community Land Model version 4.0 (CLM-CN), the land component
of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), was used. We performed offline
CLM-CN simulations forcing the model with two different climate drivers: the NCAR/
NCEP atmospheric reanalysis dataset for the period 1948-2004 and the ECMWF
ERA-Interim reanalysis for the period 1989-2009. Model runs were performed at a
resolution of 1Ë x1Ë , at each model time-step the total area burned, fire probability
and CO2 emitted from forest fires were computed by the embedded forest fires
routine.
To evaluate the accuracy of CLM-CN we used different products for the different output
provided by the model. For the evaluation of forest fires probability and total area burned
simulated we used the European Fire Database. This database contains the forest fires
information compiled by European countries and it is part of the European Forest Fire
Information System (EFFIS). For the evaluation of the CO2 emitted the results were
compared with the available satellite-based estimates reported in the Global Fire Emissions
Database, Version 2 (GFEDv2).
The uncertainty in total area burned, forest fires probability and regional CO2 emissions
from forest fires related to the climatic forcing was quantified comparing the results of the
different runs conducted with the different forcing. |
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