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| Titel |
Cluster analysis of increased future precipitation extremes on the Norwegian west coast |
| VerfasserIn |
Ulla Heikkilä, Asgeir Sorteberg |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2011
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 13 (2011) |
| Datensatznummer |
250047296
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Winter precipitation extremes on the Norwegian west coast are mostly driven by low pressure systems on the North Atlantic. A dynamical downscaling of the Arpege AGCM using the WRF regional climate model (30 km horizontal resolution) has been performed for the 30-year periods of 1961-1990 and 2021-2050. An increase of extreme precipitation (0.995 quantile) of 35% was predicted between the future and the present periods. We connect these extremes to the variations of the mean sea-level pressure (MSLP). We employ the k-mean cluster analysis to detect persisting MSLP patterns connected to the extreme precipitation days. We define a "risk of extremes" describing how many of the days with a given MSLP pattern actually include extreme precipitation. This "risk of extremes" increases between 60% and 80% in the future, depending on the MSLP pattern. This means that no significant change in the weather patterns is predicted in the future but more days belonging to a given pattern cause extreme precipitation due to higher temperatures and therefore increased moisture content in the air. |
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