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| Titel |
Assessment of Potentially Dangerous Glacial Lakes in Chinese Himalayas |
| VerfasserIn |
Yao Xiaojun, Liu Shiyin, Wang Xin |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2010
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 12 (2010) |
| Datensatznummer |
250044533
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Abstract: Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are catastrophic discharges of water resulting
primarily from melting glaciers. In the face of global warming, most Himalayan glaciers have
been retreating at a rate that ranges from a few meters to several tens of meters per year,
resulting in an increase in the number and size and size of glacial lakes and a concomitant
increase in the threat of GLOFs. In the past 50 years, 16 GLOF events which were
reported in Tibet had caused the loss of human lives as well as severe damage to
local infrastructure. Based on the combination of temperature and precipitation of
these 14 failed moraine-dammed lakes, the climatic background could be classified
into 4 types, that is, warm-wet, warm-arid, cold-wet and near common weather
condition. Under different climatic background types, the outburst mechanisms can
be further divided into 5 types and 21 modes based on the analysis of 31 failed
moraine-dammed lakes documented all over the world. As to a potentially dangerous
moraine-dammed lake, all possible breach modes under each climatic background
are firstly described and its qualitative possibilities are given by experts, then the
decision-making trees are formed and the breach probability of the potentially dangerous
moraine-dammed lake can be calculate. The breaching probabilities of the 143
potentially dangerous moraine-dammed lakes were calculated one by one using
the decision-making trees model in Chinese Himalayas. The calculating results
show that there are 44 lakes with very high breaching probability, 47 lakes with
high breaching probability, 24 lakes with median breaching probability, 24 lakes
with low breaching probability, 4 lakes with very low breaching probability. The
91 lakes with very high and high breaching probability rate should be requested
in the next steps of detailed assessment and should be took into account in local
infrastructure construction, such as road, hydropower station and residential plan,
etc.
Key words: GLOF, Chinese Himalayas, Dangerous Glacial Lakes |
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