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| Titel |
Evaluation of ensemble flow forecasts generated through a distributed hydrological model and data assimilation |
| VerfasserIn |
Pablo Mendoza, James McPhee, Ximena Vargas |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2010
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 12 (2010) |
| Datensatznummer |
250043806
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This paper focuses on the application of Topnet, a physically based distributed hydrological
model, for real – time flood forecasting purposes. The area of interest is the Cautin River
basin, located in Southern Chile (38º 29’ S and 72º 00’ W). The catchment area is 2688 km2
and the annual mean rainfall is 2346 mm. After calibration, the model is able to reproduce
hourly streamflow at the basin outlet successfully. However, it is impossible to get
reliable simulations for all flood events analyzed using the same set of parameters. In
order to reduce model uncertainty, an ensemble Kalman filter implementation was
calibrated and applied, demonstrating that model simulations can improve significantly.
Furthermore, Talagrand histograms and Q-Q plots indicate that it is possible to get good
ensemble properties in a rainy period. Model calibration and assimilation results
suggest that lack of information about the spatial variability of model parameters
hinders our ability to obtain a reliable propagation of information from the outlet to a
gauged upstream point, in opposition to results obtained assimilating streamflows
only at an interior location. Finally, we combine the hydrological model with a
5-day weather forecast based on the WRF model, and show the skill of the proposed
framework in forecasting maximum flows in a basin with limited basic information. |
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