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| Titel |
Projection of wind-driven upwelling seasons off Central Chile and Peru: an approach from multi-model statistical downscaling |
| VerfasserIn |
Katerina Goubanova, Boris Dewitte, Carlos Ruiz Vasquez |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2010
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 12 (2010) |
| Datensatznummer |
250043561
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The wind-driven upwelling of Southern-central Chile and central Peru is characterized by a marked seasonality due to the seasonal shift of the South-East Pacific anticyclone. However both regions exhibit different characteristics in terms of seasonal phase locking and amplitude of the upwelling. The Peruvian cost is characterized by year around upwelling with maximum intensity during austral winter whereas the region off Southern-Chile exhibits upwelling only during spring and summer.
In this study we assess the impact of the climate change on the characteristics of maximum upwelling season for these two regions. A statistical downscaling method is constructed based on the QuickSCAT observations over 2000-2008. The large scale predictors are from NCEP reanalysis (sea level pressure and wind at 10m). The method is applied to daily outputs of an ensemble of twelve IPCC AR4 coupled models for the present day conditions and those projected for the end of 21st century (A2 IPCC scenario). The result allows the estimation of the change in various indices of the upwelling from the cumulative Ekman transport (duration, intensity and on-set date of the upwelling favourable season) from present day climate to a warmer one. It is found that future climate change are associated with an intensification of the wind-driven upwelling and longer duration of maximum upwelling season due to its earlier on-set. These changes have greater amplitudes off the Chilean coast. The results are discussed in the light of the observed trends over the last five decades. |
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