| During the last 15 years ensemble weather forecasting has made substantial progress and has proved its skill in forecasting probabilities of relevant weather events. More recently, the development and growing use of high resolution, convection permitting, models has significantly increased the potential of atmospheric modelling. However, this opens new questions regarding the representation of initial and model uncertainties.
In the framework of the MEDUP project and in preparation of the forthcoming Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean experiment (HyMeX), several preliminary studies have been carried out aiming at a better understanding of the predictability of Mediterranean intense events and a better quantification of their forecast uncertainties. Different approaches have been explored, including perturbed initial conditions and perturbed physical parameterizations. The presentation will review the most recent results of the MEDUP project and give the outline of the numerical strategy that is being envisaged for the HyMeX field campaign. |