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| Titel |
Extreme-value analysis of future trends in heavy rainfall over Europe based on a multi-model ensemble of regional climate model simulations |
| VerfasserIn |
Christine Radermacher, Lorenzo Tomassini |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2010
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 12 (2010) |
| Datensatznummer |
250039023
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Extreme precipitation events are expected to change their frequency and
intensity in a warmer climate due to alterations in dynamic and
thermodynamic processes. Recent studies have questioned the
applicability of the Clausius-Clapeyron relation for the prediction of
future changes in the statistics of heavy rainfall events. We present an
extreme-value analysis of projected heavy rainfall in an ensemble of
eight high-resolution regional climate model simulations over the
European domain. The consideration of several regional climate models
that are forced by different global models allows for a robust analysis.
The advanced extreme-value statistical method is based on a model that
includes time-dependent parameters. The four seasons are examined
separately. This allows for identifying and sharpening the understanding
of physical processes inducing the changes in rainfall characteristics.
Thermodynamic aspects of changes in heavy rainfall, such as moisture
availability and changes in latent heat fluxes, are investigated, and
the role of convective versus large-scale precipitation is explored.
Regional differences in trends over various European areas and potential
causes, as well as reasons for the limited validity of the
Clausius-Clapeyron relation, are discussed in detail. |
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