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| Titel |
Downscaling of drought for Southwest Germany by using circulation types based on NCAR-SLP data and transient RCM-A1B scenario runs |
| VerfasserIn |
Hans J. Caspary, András Bárdossy, Bernd Katzenberger |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2010
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 12 (2010) |
| Datensatznummer |
250038932
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In June and August 2003 Europe suffered a drought with extreme low flows and an extreme
heat wave which caused about 35 000 fatalities and economic losses totalling 13 billion US-$.
Droughts and extreme low flows for Southwest Germany in summer and the vegetation
period are mostly linked to a few special circulation types (CP). The methodology of a fuzzy
rule based objective CP classification using NCAR-SLP data and time series of daily
areal precipitation for several river basins of Southwest Germany will be described.
“Critical” drought-CPs, which are causing droughts and low flows in the study area
are detected by using a wetness index. Spatial distribution of drought conditions
will be illustrated by using maps of wetness index of specific CPs for the State of
Baden-Württemberg. Time series of the frequencies and maximum persistence of the
"critical" CPs will be analyzed for the observation period (1900-2007) and transient
RCM-A1B-Scenario runs (2001- 2100) for three different RCMs. The KNMI RACMO2
model and the MPI REMO model, both driven by the A1B emission scenario of
ECHAM5 and 3 ensemble runs of HadRM3 (2001-2099) of the UK Hadley Centre.
The results of the statistical analysis of the “critical” CPs will be demonstrated for
summer (JJA) and the vegetation period (April-Sept.). A comparison of the results
obtained for the observation period (1900-2007) and the transient A1B-scenario
runs of 2001-2100 will indicate how the risk of extreme low flows and droughts in
summer will change for Southwest Germany in the future for the different RCM runs. |
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