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| Titel |
What can be learned about the maximum magnitude from historic earthquake data? |
| VerfasserIn |
Gert Zöller, Matthias Holschneider, Sebastian Hainzl |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2010
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 12 (2010) |
| Datensatznummer |
250038392
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We show that in the context of a truncated Gutenberg Richter model for the distribution of
magnitudes the maximum magnitude M event can not be estimated from observations. In
more precise terms, the marginal posterior distribution of this parameter given any number of
observations is not normalizable. If an upper bound MË for the truncation value is assumed,
the posterior distribution can be normalized and its variance decreases with the number
of observed events. In this case, however, the posterior depends on the choice of
MË. |
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