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| Titel |
Probabilistic temperature point forecasts in the Alps using ensemble dressing |
| VerfasserIn |
Georg J. Mayr, Philipp Tartaroitti |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2010
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 12 (2010) |
| Datensatznummer |
250037690
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The goal is the probabilistic prediction of 2m-temperature at three locations in the Alps (central, southern and eastern) by "dressing" a dynamic ensemble from the ECMWF global model with errors from the best member to obtain a larger hybrid ensemble.
The probabilistic forecasts of the hybrid ensemble are evaluated during a test-period (January 2008 through December 2008) using two different scoring rules (Brier; ignorance) and reliability diagrams. Hybrid ensembles are generated with errors from a separate data set of past predictions from July 2006 through December 2007. |
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