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| Titel |
Evidence for increased risk from Atlantic tropical cyclones with rising temperatures. |
| VerfasserIn |
Aslak Grinsted, John C. Moore, Svetlana Jevrejeva |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2010
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 12 (2010) |
| Datensatznummer |
250035185
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We used tide gauge records to construct an index of storm surge intensity in the tropical Atlantic cyclone region, which we interpret as a measure of the threat posed by tropical cyclones. Changes in surge index return periods are related to changes in global average temperature at the 95% significance level. Surge risk increases with temperature for all event sizes, but larger events become relatively more frequent. We provide observational evidence that with 2°C warming we would expect an ~8 fold increase in the frequency of events of Katrina magnitude. |
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