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| Titel |
The medieval mismatch of model and proxy ensembles for Northern Hemispheric temperatures |
| VerfasserIn |
Rob Wilson, Eduardo Zorita |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2010
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 12 (2010) |
| Datensatznummer |
250034772
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Over the past decade or so, a huge a mount of effort has been made to reconstruct and model the evolution of large-scale temperatures over the past Millennium. It is well known that there is a large difference in amplitude in temperature change between both model runs and proxy reconstruction. To take this into account, the recent 2007 IPCC report presented the different large scale proxy reconstruction as a probability plot -- the so called "bloody saw" - which emphasised periods of greatest agreement between the records. Comparison between different model runs and this figure generally showed a good agreement. However, a close inspection of these data shows a break down in coherence between the proxy and model records prior to ~1300. In this presentation, we focus on this period of mismatch and discuss possible reasons why such disagreement is seen as well as emphasise the implication of this mismatch for attribution. |
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