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| Titel |
Short-term Polar Motion Forecasts from Earth System Modeling Data |
| VerfasserIn |
Robert Dill, Henryk Dobslaw |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2010
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 12 (2010) |
| Datensatznummer |
250033527
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Forecasts of polar motion variations for 10 days into the future have been obtained from
predicted states of the atmosphere, ocean and continental hydrosphere as represented in
global numerical models that were consistently forced with ECMWF medium-range
atmospheric forecasts. Within a hind-cast experiment covering 2003 - 2008, the effective
forecast length of the combination have been found to be 7 days, primarily limited by the
accuracy of the atmospheric wind fields. In comparison to present-day forecasts
provided by the IERS bulletin A, skill scores of excitation functions are improved
by up to 0.5 for forecast days 4-5, leading to accumulated polar motion forecast
errors for day 5 to 10 that are reduced by more than 26% compared to bulletin A. |
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