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| Titel |
Applications of the gambling score in evaluating earthquake predictions and forecasts |
| VerfasserIn |
Jiancang Zhuang, Jeremy D. Zechar, Changsheng Jiang, Rodolfo Console, Maura Murru, Giuseppe Falcone |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2010
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 12 (2010) |
| Datensatznummer |
250033146
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This study presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the performance
earthquake forecasts or predictions. Unlike most other scoring procedures that require a
regular scheme of forecast and treat each earthquake equally, regardless their magnitude, this
new scoring method compensates the risk that the forecaster has taken. Starting
with a certain number of reputation points, once a forecaster makes a prediction or
forecast, he is assumed to have betted some points of his reputation. The reference
model, which plays the role of the house, determines how many reputation points the
forecaster can gain if he succeeds, according to a fair rule, and also takes away the
reputation points bet by the forecaster if he loses. This method is also extended to the
continuous case of point process models, where the reputation points betted by
the forecaster become a continuous mass on the space-time-magnitude range of
interest.
For discrete predictions, we apply this method to evaluate performance of Shebalin’s
predictions made by using the Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) algorithm and of the
outputs of the predictions from the Annual Consultation Meeting on Earthquake Tendency
held by China Earthquake Administration. For the continuous case, we use it to compare the
probability forecasts of seismicity in the Abruzzo region before and after the L’aquila
earthquake based on the ETAS model and the PPE model. |
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