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| Titel |
Abrupt monsoon failure - mechanism for sustained 'dry-state' in comprehensive climate model |
| VerfasserIn |
Jacob Schewe, Anders Levermann |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2010
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 12 (2010) |
| Datensatznummer |
250031898
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Regular monsoon rainfall in India provides the basis of living for more than one billion people. Recently the possibility of abrupt monsoon failure was demonstrated in a conceptual framework. Here we identify an exceptionally weak monsoon in a realistic simulation of the past millennium in a state-of-the-art comprehensive climate model and provide mechanisms for monsoon failure and sustained development of a dry circulation system: Small perturbations in surface reflectivity in early spring suppress proper initiation of the moisture-advection feedback and thereby inhibit the development of regular monsoon precipitation. Instead a qualitatively different atmospheric circulation evolves with rainfall reduced by ~70% compared to the long term mean. The event is abrupt in the sense that it is preceded and followed by years with average rainfall. |
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