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| Titel |
Naples between two fires: eruptive scenarios for the next eruptions by an integrated volcanological-probabilistic approach. |
| VerfasserIn |
G. Mastrolorenzo, L. Pappalardo, G. De Natale, C. Troise, S. Rossano, A. Panizza |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250030275
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Probabilistic approaches based on available volcanological data from real eruptions of
Campi Flegrei and Somma-Vesuvius, are assembled in a comprehensive assessment of
volcanic hazards at the Neapolitan area. This allows to compare the volcanic hazards
related to the different types of events, which can be used for evaluating the conditional
probability of flows and falls hazard in case of a volcanic crisis. Hazard maps are
presented, based on a rather complete set of numerical simulations, produced using
field and laboratory data as input parameters relative to a large range (VEI 1 to 5)
of fallout and pyroclastic-flow events and their relative occurrence. The results allow
us to quantitatively evaluate and compare the hazard related to pyroclastic fallout and
density currents (PDCs) at the Neapolitan volcanoes and their surroundings, including
the city of Naples. Due to its position between the two volcanic areas, the city of
Naples is particularly exposed to volcanic risk from VEI>2 eruptions, as recorded in
the local volcanic succession. Because dominant wind directions, the area of Naples
is particularly prone to fallout hazard from Campi Flegrei caldera eruptions in the VEI
range 2-5. The hazard from PDCs decreases roughly radially with distance from the
eruptive vents and is strongly controlled by the topographic heights. Campi Flegrei
eruptions are particularly hazardous for Naples, although the Camaldoli and Posillipo
hills produce an effective barrier to propagation to the very central part of Naples.
PDCs from Vesuvius eruptions with VEI>4 can cover the city of Naples, whereas
even VEI>3 eruptions have a moderate fallout hazard there. |
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