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| Titel |
Uncertainties in small-scale precipitation forecasts |
| VerfasserIn |
L. Ferraris, J. von Hardenberg, A. Provenzale, N. Rebora |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250030098
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Small-scale forecasting of intense precipitation is crucial for characterizing important ground
effects, such as floods in small mountainous catchments or landslides. High resolution
forecasts of precipitation are affected by two main sources of uncertainty: (1) uncertainty at
the meteorological scale, which includes uncertainty in the initial conditions of the
atmosphere due to insufficient observations, and (2) uncertainty due to the lack of
representation of small-scale precipitation processes. While the first kind of uncertainty can
be addressed by using meteorological ensemble predictions, the problem of quantifying
sub-grid scale uncertainty is still open.
This presentation will discuss different approaches aimed at characterizing precipitation
forecasts at small-scales, their statistical features and the related uncertainties. In particular,
techniques aimed at estimating the relative weight between the uncertainty at the
meteorological scale and at the sub-grid scale will be considered. |
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